На русском языке:
Исследование: Светлана Тихановская на выборах 2020 года победила уже в первом туре
На беларускай мове:
Даследаванне: Святлана Ціханоўская на выбарах 2020 года перамагла ўжо ў першым туры
Pavel Liber, the developer of the Voice platform, published a study on the results of the 2020 presidential election in the Republic of Belarus, which was collected by the Voice, Zubr, Honest People initiative and BYPOL.
According to the study, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya scored at least 3 million votes and won in the first round.
It was possible to restore the results of the vote thanks to 900 thousand voters who noted at their polling stations on The Voice platform, and 1517 official protocols.
As a result, if the real turnout in the elections was 78% (5.4 million people), the real distribution of votes is:
- Tsikhanouskaya – 56% (3,0 million);
- Lukashenka – 34% (1,8 million). Note that these 34% include falsified results in early voting.;
- Others – 10% (0,5 million).
Why can we reliably say that the official results are falsified?
- The result of half of the official protocols for Minsk (127.1 thousand) and the region (125.3 thousand) already exceeds the data of the CEC (126.9 and 115.3 thousand votes for Tsikhanouskaya, respectively).
- Judging by the published protocols, the results in the remaining protocols to obtain in the sum of the official results, which were announced by the CEC, are statistically impossible.
- The total official turnout in the republic was 84%, including only 67% in Minsk. Such a run is impossible and is refuted by queues at Minsk polling stations on the main voting day.
- The official early turnout is unrealistic and exceeds 40% in the whole country. At the same time, the official result of the candidates directly depends on the turnout — although the method of voting (ahead of schedule or on the main day) should not affect the result.
Thus, on the basis of the available official protocols and data of the Voice platform, it can be argued that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya scored at least 3 million votes and won in the first round. With any approach to assessing the election results, Alexander Lukashenka lost them.
