92% of respondents support sanctions. The results of verification of a pro-governmental sociological survey

12 mins

На русском языке: 92% опрошенных поддерживают санкции. Результаты проверки провластного социологического исследования
На беларускай мове: 92% апытаных падтрымліваюць санкцыі. Вынікі праверкі праўладнага сацыялагічнага даследавання

THE INSTITUTE OF SOCIOLOGY OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS TOGETHER WITH THE OFFICE ECOOM CONDUCTS A SOCIOLOGICAL STUDY "Belarus. Opinion on Future", WHERE Belarusians are asked to answer 24 questions, including: Your attitude to the planned amendments to the Constitution, who is to blame for the migration crisis and how do you feel about the sanctions against the Lukashenka regime. The results of the official pro-governmental "sociological study" have not yet been published. Despite this, we decided to collect the answers of a part of the Internet audience in advance and CONDUCTED OUR ONLINE SURVEY WITH QUESTIONS FROM THE OFFICIAL QUESTIONNAIRE.

We received 26,486 responses from people in our  online survey in 2,5 days. Of course, such online surveys are not even close to a full-fledged sociological study. However, they allow us to know for sure the current opinion of a part of the Internet audience. Which in turn can show whether the official results are distorted and to what extent, which may well be used to show an imaginary approval of any action.

Speaking about the official survey, Gennady Korshunov, the former director of the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, wrote in his Telegram channel that the questionnaire was at least compiled extremely unprofessionally. In particular, it does not say how many options for answering the questions can be: «This is not just a mistake, this is an outright messing up that suggests that this is either a draft of the toolkit or a blatant lack of professionalism of the performers«. In addition, Korshunov writes that many questions are drawn up manipulatively, for example, the question: «What is your attitude towards sanctions against Belarus?» is incorrect, since «against Belarus» is the wording of the official Minsk, and not of those who introduced them.

The editors of motolko.help asked one of the Belarusian sociologists to comment on the results. According to the expert, the data can’t serve as a reflection of public opinion of the entire population of the country. At the same time, it can probably be said that this study reflects the opinions of the most protest-minded part of Belarusian society.

The results of the survey commented by our expert:

  • Most of respondents are men from Minsk with higher education aged 25-45 years;
  • 93% of respondents get information from online media and social networks (72%). The highest level of people’s trust is to opposition – 93% (47%- ‘Rather trust’, 46% — ‘Trust’), at the same time, there’s a total mistrust to all the governmental institutions, the negative rate is from 83% to 97%.

«The number of Internet users watching TV is minimal. That is, the one who receives information from the network practically does not watch TV. Fairly predictable trust to the opposition and the Internet, coupled with total distrust to any state institutions. It is worth noting that these data are consistent with the recent results of the Chatham House survey»,–the expert says.

  • Economic situation has deteriorated both in the country (97%) and in families of respondents (68%). Vast majority imposes responsibility for this on Lukashenka (87%) and the government (74%), but 26% of respondents also impose responsibility on themselves.

«This is a rather classic option, when people assess their position better than the situation in the country. Expected answers, where the main culprits of the deterioration of life are the authorities. Interestingly, at the same time, 25% of respondents do not evade their own responsibility».

  • 92% support sanctions against the regime in Belarus and believe that they’re aimed at making our life better, and also at making Belarus ‘independent’.

«92% of respondents support sanctions. This is powerful and, I think, relevant for a significant part of the protest audience. Interestingly, with a certain manipulativeness of both the wording of the question and the answer options, the most popular were «make life better» and «make Belarus independent». The quotation marks didn’t help the customer very much».

  • 95% impose responsibility for the migration crisis on the official Minsk;
  • 84% of respondents to the question  «What incentives of Lukashenka seem to you most significant?» answered «none of them».

«It’s a very interesting point, not the question itself, but the distribution of answers. The question is which incentives of Lukashenka seem to be the most significant, and the main answer is none of them (84%). Exhaustively. I will say right away about the question on the Day of National Unity, which is also beautiful for its main answer — this day does not matter (89%)».

  • Only 1% of respondents consider relations with the Russian Federation to be «fraternal», more than half (52%) indicated the opposite – «relations are tense»;
  • 83% of respondents in one way or another are against holding a referendum on the Constitution in current conditions;
  • 58% plan to participate in the referendum (37% — «Yes», 21% — «Rather yes»), 28% are in favor of the boycott (17% — «No», 11% — «Rather no»).

«The distribution of responses can be seen as a balance of power between boycott and participation. It is worth paying attention to the question of the necessary amendments to the Constitution. With all the abstractness of the formulated answer options, the extending of civil rights and freedoms comes first, and then the redistribution of powers of the branches of power and the liberalization of the state».

Note: At the top of the dashboard there is an opportunity to change the display mode. You can analyze data both in absolute values and in %. When you select any of the answer options, all other graphs are filtered out, that is, only the answers of the selected group are displayed. To remove the filtering, you need to click on the selected fragment again. To select several answer options, you need to click while holding Ctrl.

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