Dollar will rise, Tsikhanouskaya will not return to Belarus: readers’ prediction for 2022

7 mins

На русском языке: Доллар будет расти, а Тихановская не вернется в Беларусь: прогнозы читателей на 2022 год
На беларускай мове: Даляр будзе расці, а Ціханоўская не вернецца ў Беларусь: прагнозы чытачоў на 2022 год

At the end of 2021, we decided to ask the audience of the telegram-channel MotolkoHelp, what people will predict for 2022. In an anonymous online survey, it was proposed to answer 13 questions, from prediction for the dollar exchange rate to whether it is worth waiting for the end of the COVID-19 pandemic for Belarus. At the end of 2022, we will find out whose prediction turned out to be the most accurate, but for now, let's see the results.

A little about the results of the survey:

  • The overwhelming majority of respondents (41%) believe that by the end of 2022, the dollar will be 2.5 — 3 rubles, only 1% of respondents believe in the depreciation of the exchange rate;
  • In general, the results were quite pessimistic, 68% predict that Viktar Babaryka will not be released in 2022. A little more – 70% of respondents also believe that Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya will not return to Belarus this year;
  • Among the respondents, there is no consensus on the question: «Will there be new Russian military bases in Belarus?», the answers to this question were divided exactly 50/50. The same can be seen in selling Belarusian enterprises to Russian investors: people predict this will happen by only 3% more than those who believe that this will not happen.
  • 61% of respondents believe that new elections in 2022 should not be expected, but 88% of respondents are confident in holding a referendum on amendments to the Constitution.

Note: At the top of the dashboard you can change the display mode. You can analyze data both in absolute values and in %.

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