Over the past two days, 8 IL-76 of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Russia. These are 2 flights with 4 aircraft: RF-76605, RA-76767, RA-78789 and RF-76731.
There are three versions of why IL-76 arrive in Belarus:
1. To bring new missiles and/or ammunition to Belarus;
2. To withdraw missiles and/or ammunition from Belarus to Russia;
3. To bring and withdraw simultaneously different types of weapons;
▪️Which version is the priority?
The second one. And it is the only one, which has a number of indirect confirmations. First, it is the long stay at the airfield mentioned above.
Second, and this is more indicative, on November 9 and 10, just before the arrival of IL-76, at least 16 trailers with S-300/400 missile containers (4 container on each) were detected moving towards Machulishchy airfield – at least 64 missiles.
As for the versions 1 and 3, they have no confirmation so far. The withdrawal of missiles or anything else from the airfield territory after the possible unloading from the IL-76 has not been recorded. That is, the most unrealistic version at the moment is “just the delivery of missiles to Belarus”, and there is not enough data to confirm the version with simultaneous delivery and withdrawal of different weapons.
▪️Where are the missiles being taken to?
- Millerovo airfield (Rostov oblast) – 4 flights;
- Rostov-on-Don-Central airfield (Rostov oblast) – 2 flights;
- Chkalovsky airfield (Moscow oblast) – 1 flight;
- Seshcha airfield (Bryansk oblast) – 1 flight.
If our assumption is confirmed, there’s the transfer of missiles to Rostov oblast, Russia. That is, the supply of missiles to the group of troops in the Luhansk and Donetsk directions.