Aviation activity
- Aviation activity was recorded at Machulishchy, Baranavichy and Asautsy airfields. Flights of aircraft and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded.
- Il-76 military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces(RF-76668) arrived at Machulishchy airfield.
- Five Mi-24 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force arrived at Asautsy airfield from Machulishchy airfield.
Rail activity
- A military cargo train with equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces was spotted at Minsk-Sartyravalny station.
Movements by road
- No large columns (10+ pieces), small columns with military vehicles, or single vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces were recorded.
- No large columns (10+ pieces) with military vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces were recorded. Single vehicles and small columns of the Belarusian Armed Forces were spotted in Minsk, Homiel, Luniniets, and on some sections of the M1 highway.
Military activity on the territory of Belarus on May 15 / Belarusian Hajun
General conclusion
According to clarified information, a military cargo train spotted on May 14 in the Baranavichy district went to Gukovo station (Rostov oblast, Russia, 4 kilometers from the occupied Luhansk oblast of Ukraine). Thus, another group of soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces went to the combat zone in Ukraine after training at the Obuz-Liasnouski training ground.
According to our data, at least two military cargo trains with personnel and military equipment (artillery, motorized rifle, and tank units) have now left Belarus for Russia. According to preliminary information, new trains with Russian soldiers started arriving in Belarus from Russia.
Thus, we can state the beginning of another rotation of part of the Russian contingent of the so-called regional group of troops stationed at the training grounds in Belarus.
As before, the rotation is as follows: trained Russian units are sent to the combat zone from Belarus, and Russian servicemen/mobilized/volunteers arrive from Russia to train at the training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces instead.
As noted earlier, there are reasons to assume that the rotation that has begun (in terms of the transfer of Russian Armed Forces units from Belarus to the combat zone) will not be large-scale, since in February-April there was a gradual decrease in the number of Russian servicemen stationed at training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces. We can note that during the deployment of the so-called regional group of troops (since October 2022), the smallest number of Russian military personnel is currently stationed in Belarus.
We recall that the last major withdrawal of the Russian Armed Forces from Belarus took place in late February-early March 2023.
Changes in the size of the group of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus:
Left Belarus:
- Equipment — at least 40 pieces (type is being clarified);
- Personnel — at least 200 people.
