Exercises abroad, missile attacks on Ukraine, construction of military bases: review of the main military events in Belarus in August

На русском языке: Учения за границей, ракетные удары по Украине, обустройство военных баз: обзор основных военных событий Беларуси за август

This review includes the most important war events that took place on the territory of Belarus in August 2022 and were recorded by the monitoring team of the Belarusian Hajun Project

Exercises of the Belarusian Armed Forces and activity at training grounds

August was full of military exercises and training with units of the Belarusian Armed Forces both in Belarus and abroad.

As always, exercises with territorial troops were held. Such exercises were held from August 9 to 31 in the city of Minsk. During the exercise, military units of territorial troops were formed. Over 300 conscripts were mobilized from the reserve. An anti-tank artillery battery armed with 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank gun was also firing as part of the exercise. It was reported that «artillery units of the territorial troops being formed carried out practical firing for the first time.»

A tactical exercise with the 120th Mechanized Brigade was held on August 8-12, 2022. And at the end of August, a battalion tactical exercise with units of the same brigade took place. Also, from August 29 to September 2, 2022, an operational special exercise of the Signal corps was held. A field exercise and artillery fire control exercise with the 51st Artillery Brigade (Asipovichy) was held in August, as well as missile strike control exercises with the 231st Artillery Brigade (village of Barouka, Lepel district, Vitsebsk region).

Exercises at Barysauski training ground / Ministry of Defense of Belarus

Exercises were also held outside Belarus. For example, 250 servicemen of the 6th Mechanized Brigade (Hrodna) took part in the exercise Vostok-2022 on the territory of Russia from August 30 to September 5. Also, Belarusian servicemen together with servicemen from Kazakhstan took part in the exercise of units of the Special Operations Forces at the Koktal training ground (Zharkent, Kazakhstan) from August 5 to August 21.

We should also note exercises of the Air Defense Forces, which were held from August 9 to August 25, 2022. The exercises were held in two stages: from August 9 to August 11 on the territory of Belarus, and from August 22 to August 25 – at the Ashuluk training ground (Astrakhan oblast, Russia). During the exercise, combat launches with S-300PS and Tor-M2 anti-aircraft missile systems were carried out. Units of the 115th anti-aircraft missile regiment (Brest), the 1146th anti-aircraft missile regiment (Varniany, Hrodna region), the 15th anti-aircraft missile brigade (Fanipal, Minsk region) and cadets of the Military Academy of Belarus were involved in the exercise.

During August, exercises at 13 training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces were extended four times (1, 2, 3, 4). The last time the exercise was extended until September 3. On August 12, the exercises were not extended at five training grounds. However, two new ones were added. These are the 210th air training ground of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces (Ruzhany training ground) and the shooting range near the village of Vialets (Valozhyn district). The exercise at these training grounds lasted one week.

Extension of exercises at Belarusian training grounds until September 3 / Belarusian Hajun

Exercises held in August are announced by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus as «planned», which is true. It should be noted that in August many military units traditionally conduct field exercises, which are an important element of combat training. This partly applies to a number of exercises outside Belarus as well. For example, units of the Belarusian Air Defense Forces traditionally travel to the Ashuluk training ground to conduct practical missile launches. Thus, the nature of the exercises does not allow us to conclude that the Belarusian Armed Forces are preparing to invade Ukraine.

One of the main points of the ongoing exercises is still study and implementation of the experience of the war in Ukraine. It should be noted that the activity at the training ranges in August was due, among other things, to the VIII Army International Games ARMY-2022. For example, they held a competition Polar Star at the Brestski training ground of the 38th Brigade (Brest district).

Movement of military equipment of the Belarusian Armed Forces

Due to the conduct of various exercises, as well as the continued performance of tasks by units of the Belarusian Armed Forces to strengthen the protection of the state border, the movement of columns of military equipment is recorded.

As usually, the greatest activity of such movements can be noted in Brest and Homel regions bordering Ukraine, which is clearly visible on the interactive map of military activity. There is an active movement of military equipment on the territory of Minsk region (especially in the areas bordering Minsk). It is possible to distinguish the following main routes of movements:

• Baranavichy-Brest;
• Zhodzina-Barysau (and back);
• Minsk ring road (MKAD);
• Minsk-Dukora (and back);
• Minsk-Slutsk;
• Ivanava-Kobryn;
  
• Baranavichy-Liakhavichy, etc.

The columns included various equipment. Mostly these were trucks (MAZ, KamAZ, ZiL-131, Ural, GAZ-66, Volat) and logistics equipment (field kitchens, fuel trucks).

Movements of columns with military equipment were also recorded, their greatest activity was noted in Brest and Homel regions, as well as in the areas bordering Minsk: Stolin district, Asipovichy (1, 2, 3; the 51st Artillery Brigade is located there), Ivanava, Pinsk, to the Brestski training ground, Rechytsa-Kalinkavichy, Minsk-Lepel, Mikashevichy-Luninets, Drahichyn district, Luninets-Pinsk.

Transportation of military equipment was also recorded – T-72B tanks on trailers (1, 2), as well as Buk systems. Columns also included light armored vehicles – BTR-80/82A, BRDM, armored vehicles of various modifications and artillery systems – 122-mm Grad MRL, 220-mm Uragan MRL, 300-mm Smerch MRL, 301-mm Polonez MRL, 122-mm D-30 howitzer, mortars of various modifications, etc. There were also movements of air defense equipment (1, 2) – Tor-M2 and Osa-AKM air defense systems.

Polonez MRL. Illustrative photo / MIL

To summarize, we can state that the nature of movements of columns with military and combat equipment does not allow conclusions to be drawn about the concentration of troops for offensive against Ukraine. The movements recorded are caused by routine activities, as well as by conduct of planned exercises.

Movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail

Movements of military equipment and units of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail are recorded. What is worth paying attention to:

• There were reports on echelons with military equipment on August 6, 13, and 31 in Barysau (1, 2, 3). The 140th repair plant (specializing in the repair and modernization of armored vehicles) is located there. We note that the echelon seen in Barysau on August 6 was also seen in the town of Stariya Darohi (Minsk region) on August 5. The 288th base of reserve vehicles of the Belarusian Armed Forces is located in the town. Also there is the 969th tank reserve base nearby (Urechcha, Luban district, Minsk region). Both military units specialize in the storage and preservation of military equipment. We note that Urechcha and Stariya Darohi have a railway connection between them. Therefore, it can be assumed that military equipment removed from storage was transported to Barysau for repair or modernization.
• There was railway activity on August 11-12 and August 30-31 in Brest (1, 2, 3, 4, 5), as well as at Hudagai station (Astravets district, Hrodna region) and in Maladzechna on August 11 and 29 (1, 2), respectively. This was due to the exercise of the air defense forces of the Belarusian Armed Forces at the Ashuluk training ground (Astrakhan oblast, Russia), which was mentioned above. Echelons of the 115th anti-aircraft missile regiment departed from Brest to the exercise and back, and those of the 1146th anti-aircraft missile regiment – from Hudagai station.
• On August 26, an echelon with more than 10 howitzers and vehicles was moving from Vitsebsk to Brest. It should be noted that the 103rd Airborne Brigade, armed with 122-mm D-30 howitzers, is stationed in Vitsebsk. This suggests that there was another rotation of units performing tasks to protect the state border.

D-30 howitzer. Illustrative photo. / Victorymuseum

• Some echelons with military equipment were also spotted: On August 16, Stoubtsy-Baranavichy line, an echelon with tanks and 122-mm Grad MRL; on August 18, an echelon with APCs was seen at Asipovichy station, and an echelon with 12 122-mm 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers, 18 BRDM, 4 BTR-70/80 and 6 MT-LB was seen at Aziaryshcha station (Minsk); on August 30, an echelon with 6 T-72 tanks arrived in Brest (most likely from Minsk).

Thus, the nature of movements of the Belarusian Armed Forces by rail in August was explained by four main reasons:

1. Movement of the Belarusian Armed Forces’ units to military exercises (on the territory of Belarus and in Russia);
2. Transportation of military equipment from storage bases to the 140th repair plant for further repair or modernization;
3. Rotation of units performing tasks to reinforce protection of the state border with Ukraine;
4. Special attention should be paid to the redeployment of military equipment to Brest, which was noted at the end of August. A possible reason is the planned command-staff exercises from September 8 to 14. The maneuvers in the areas bordering Ukraine may be aimed at creating additional tension and drawing attention of the Ukrainian Armed Forces away from the main theaters of military operations.

Aviation activity of the Belarusian Air Force

During the month, active training of military transport aircraft of the Belarusian Air Force over Machulishchy airfield was recorded. There were active flights and trainings of the Belarusian Air Force at the airfields Lida and Baranavichy. It should be noted that when at the beginning of August training exercises were held near the airfields, later they relocated to the 210th air training ground of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces (Ruzhany training ground).

There was also a noticeable increase in the activity of Mi-8 and Mi-24 helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force over the town of Biaroza and Asautsy airfield, which were flying to train at the 210th air training ground of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces (Ruzhany training ground).

Mi-24 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force. Illustrative photo / bmpd

At the end of August, aviation training was recorded over the 230th training ground Obuz-Liasnouski (Baranavichy district).

It should be noted that some of the aviation activity was related to the delivery of soldiers of the Belarusian Armed Forces  to participate in the ARMY-2022 competitions (for example, here).

Formation of the Southern Operational Command of the Belarusian Armed Forces

On May 26, at a meeting of the Ministry of Defense on military security, Lukashenka announced that a new Southern Operational Command (SOC) of the Belarusian Armed Forces would be created to provide additional coverage of the border with Ukraine.

There was no publicly available information about the work on the formation of the SOC. In response to an inquiry about the prospects for the formation of SOC, the Ministry of Defense did not provide information about the status of the formation of SOC, as well as about the possible timing of the formation, referring to the law On state secrets.

We note that the existing operational commands (Western – in Hrodna, and Northwestern – in Barysau) each have two mechanized and one artillery brigade, as well as other units. Forming such a large number of new military units requires a large number of resources and solving a number of organizational and technical problems (for example, with permanent deployment points for the newly formed military units, etc.). In this regard, we can’t expect a full-fledged formation of the SOC in the near future. An indirect indication of the slow progress in the creation of the SOC is the complete lack of relevant information from the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.

Activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces

In August, military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at:

• Baranavichy military airfield;
• Machulishchy military airfield;
• Homel airport: From August 5 to 14, 5 military transport IL-76 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived, which brought S-300/400 missiles (1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Ammunition was further relocated to Ziabrauka airfield (Homel district).

Arrivals of Russian aviation in Homel in August 2022 / Belarusian Hajun

It should be noted that some of the aviation activity was related to the delivery of servicemen to participate in the ARMY-2022 contests (for example, here). Thus, military transport aviation of the Russian Aerospace Forces continues to arrive in Belarus, which is primarily explained by supplying the group of troops in Belarus.

Missile strikes from the territory of Belarus

In August, there was an increase in the number of missile attacks on the territory of Ukraine compared to July 2022. The monitoring team of the Belarusian Hajun Project recorded the following launches:

• August 16. At 12:46 a fighter took off from Baranavichy airfield (Brest region), which at around 13:00 launched 2 Kh-59 missiles from the territory over the Stolin district on the airfield in Zhytomyr region.
• August 24. At 15:43, at least 3 Russian aircraft entered the Belarusian airspace from Russia through the city of Mahiliou. At 17:13, 4 missiles were launched at the intersection of the Aktsiabrski and Petrykau districts of Homel region.

Missile attack against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, 24.08.2022 / Belarusian Hajun

• August 24. At 18:20, at least two Russian aircraft entered the airspace of Belarus from Russia through the town of Mstislaul (Mahiliou region). Between 18:45 and 18:46 north of the Slutsk district, Minsk region, from one to two missiles were launched in the southern direction.
• August 25. From 02:35 to 02:40 at the intersection of three districts of Homel region (Homel, Rechytsa and Brahin disricts), 7 missiles were launched. The shelling was presumably carried out from S-300/400 SAM systems.
• August 28. At 19:14, at least 5 Russian entered the airspace of Belarus from Russia through the town of Mstislaul (Mahiliou region). At least five missile were launched from the aircraft.

Thus, we can state an increase in the number of missile strikes from the territory of Belarus, at least 20 air-based and ground-based missiles were launched during the month.

Movements of military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces

There are single movements of equipment in the southern regions of Belarus (1, 2, 3, 4), as well as movement of trailers with missiles for S-300/400 SAM systems of the Russian Armed Forces from Homel airport to Ziabrauka airfield. Single trailers with missiles for S-300/400 SAM systems were also seen in Mazyr.

Construction of military bases of the Russian Armed Forces

According to satellite images taken on August 7 by Planet Labs, construction works are carried out at Luninets airfield (Brest region). They are cutting wood at the airfield, demolishing old hangars and clearing areas for construction of new facilities. It is worth noting that information about possible construction work on the airfield appeared in early 2022. At that time there were reports about its possible transfer for the operation under control of the Russian Armed Forces.

Works at Luninets airfield, August 7, 2022 / Radio Svaboda

Activity of the Russian Armed Forces is also recorded at Ziabrauka airfield (Homel district). According to the available satellite images, we can conclude that work was carried out to extend the runway of the airfield.

There is also a large amount of military equipment at the airfield – from 10 to 14 units of S-400 Triumf SAM system, three KASTA-2E2 radars and 48Ya6 Podlyot, two Pantsir systems, a warehouse of ammunition with missiles for S-300/400 SAM systems.

We should also mention the incident that occurred at the airfield on the night of August 11: a T-72 tank caught fire and ammunition detonated, destroying about 10 munitions. Overall, the airfield is actually a military base of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus.

We also note that no new locations of the Russian Armed Forces were identified in August. The information about the locations of the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus dated 26 June, 2022 is still up to date.

Key points

The Russian Armed Forces are not going to leave the territory of Belarus in the medium term. This is indicated by construction work at Luninets and Ziabrauka airfields, active arrivals of military transport aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces, as well as an increase in the intensity of missile attacks against Ukraine. Therefore, the conclusion made in the review of military events for July 2022 that the most probable scenario for the Russian Armed Forces in Belarus is periodic missile strikes by air-based and ground-based systems was fully confirmed in August.

Taking into account the situation in the southern and eastern theaters of military operations in Ukraine (the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, active missile attacks on ammunition depots and transport infrastructure facilities), we should expect that the Armed Forces of Russia will use Belarusian territory more actively to conduct missile attacks on Ukraine, creating additional tension for the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The general conclusion that there are no preconditions for launching a large-scale ground operation from the territory of Belarus (similar to the one that began on February 24, 2022) remains. The Russian Armed Forces do not have enough forces and means on the territory of Belarus to conduct large-scale offensive operations. The hypothetical preparation of the Russian Armed Forces for such an operation can’t be unnoticed. We must not forget that the February 24 invasion from the territory of Belarus was a «success» due to its unexpectedness for the Ukrainian leadership. Although we can’t completely deny the scenario of a military invasion by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus, it currently looks unrealistic.

The Belarusian Armed Forces actively conduct exercises and drills at training grounds. However, all these activities are mostly planned and do not allow us to conclude that a military operation against Ukraine is being prepared. Taking into account the slow process of establishing the Southern Operational Command (SOC), at the moment we can talk about the absence of a threat to Ukraine from the Belarusian Armed Forces. Given the activity of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the southern and eastern theaters of military operations in Ukraine, we should expect that Belarus, as a «strategic ally» of Russia, will continue to move its troops and conduct exercises near the borders in order to create tension for the Ukrainian leadership. As of today, this is the main activity of the Belarusian Armed Forces.

You can support the work of the Belarusian Hajun Project here