Yesterday we refuted information that appeared in Ukrainian Telegram channels, saying that on February 22, a column of military equipment without identification signs, which included servicemen in the uniform of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, was seen moving in Homel region. The Belarusian Hajun did not record the movements of the Russian Armed Forces mentioned above.
Based on a fake, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its February 23 report that Russia seeks to draw the Lukashenka regime into the war and is preparing a possible false flag provocation for this purpose. Simply speaking, an imitation of the alleged invasion by units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces of the territory of Belarus in order to force the Lukashenka regime to retaliate in military terms. This provocation could be a response to Lukashenka’s statement of February 16, 2023, where he says that Belarus will enter the war only in case of an attack from Ukraine.
We would like to emphasize that ISW’s conclusion about a «possible provocation» to draw the Belarusian Armed Forces into the war in Ukraine was made on the basis of the fake, which was refuted yesterday. This questions not only the competence of the analytical center as a whole, which over the past year has been quoted widely in the Ukrainian and Belarusian media in the context of the war in Ukraine, but also the forecasts announced by it earlier. By the way, ISW experts’ conclusions about a «possible provocation» have already been widely spread in the Belarusian media.
In general, the narrative about Russia’s desire to draw the Belarusian Armed Forces into the war is very profitable for the regime in Belarus, as it creates the illusion that allegedly only thanks to Lukashenka’s «personal courage» the Belarusian army has not yet entered the war.