На русском языке:
«Нашы грошы»: Беларусь теряет хорошие дороги и прибыль
На беларускай мове:
«Нашы грошы»: Беларусь губляе добрыя дарогі і прыбытак
The Telegram channel «Nashy Groshy» published a post, in which the authors discuss what future the roads of Belarus will have, what will happen to the export of transport services, and where the loss of a reliable source of currency will lead to. We publish the post unchanged.
One of the main natural advantages of Belarus is its geographical location. We actively use this advantage by providing transport services ourselves or allowing companies from other countries to ship cargo through Belarus. Let’s take a look today at what benefits this brings to the country, and where the loss of a reliable source of currency will lead to.
Transport services have been the main driver of Belarus’ total export of services for a long time, accounting for an impressive 43% in 2021. The export of transport services has always brought the country very large and, importantly, stable foreign exchange earnings due to the constant excess of exports over imports in this area.
Of course, we could see how the crazy projects of our main economic partner and the global turmoil were affecting indicators: after the «Crimea is ours», we decreased significantly, losing about a billion dollars in exports a year, and were recovering for several years.
Even during the COVID lockdown, the industry continued to bring in big money. Moreover, in 2021, exports of transport services, reaching a record $4,4 billion, essentially «rescued» the country’s overall export performance.
We should not forget another aspect. It was our geographical location that made international companies willing to allocate best loans for the construction of transport infrastructure. These loans were the reason why the roads in Belarus began to be regularly modernized. It will be easy to make sure of that: the time for such loans is over, and let’s see what will happen to the roads in the next few years.
What is happening now and what will happen soon?
Export of transport services / Nashy Groshy
The statistics indicate that the transport services sector is starting to plummet – the economy in this sector decreased by 7,8% in January-April, and this is just the beginning. Obviously, this will affect the profitability of services export in principle, as well as the export/import balance, which the Belarusian authorities have managed to keep with gains until now. It is quite possible that the export of transport services will be the final straw for the «Belarusian economic miracle.»
But this is only part of the consequences.
In the next few years, the quality of roads will rapidly and noticeably deteriorate, there is a very high probability that the «bridge collapse,» which is becoming a usual phenomenon in our country, will continue. Judging by the sanctions, the country’s car fleet will get worse and worse, and given the poor quality of roads, cars will break down much faster. In addition, very soon the fleet of trucks allowed to transport goods across the EU will begin to decrease, and there will be nothing to replenish it with. And even if we imagine a certain positive scenario and assume that in a year or two the borders of the EU will be opened for Belarusian vehicles, it may turn out that there will be almost nothing to go there by.
In conclusion, let us say a few words about the nonsense like «we can replace!» that is now being spread from the screens of propaganda channels. Reorientation of the economy is a long and complicated process, and in the Belarusian case it is also unpromising. We traded with Europe not because someone forced us to, but only because it was profitable to supply services there.
It is enough to look at the statistics, and it becomes clear that the overwhelming part of the proceeds in foreign currency from the export of transport services is given to us by the European Union. In road transport, the EU accounts for 71%, compared with 12% for the Eurasian Economic Union. In rail transport the EU takes 58%, while the EAEU takes only 22%. It is not even necessary to add anything here, the figures speak for themselves.
