On January 15, the Ukrainian company Defense Express published photos of wreckage of missiles that Russia used to attack Kyiv on January 14. The photos show 48N6DM index, which indicates that these are missile wreckages of Russian S-400 missile.
The company reported that the range of such missiles is 230-250 km and stated that «the launch area for 48N6DM missiles from S-400 is, with a maximum share of probability, the territory of the Belarusian airfield Ziabrauka.»
Throughout today, the Belarusian Hajun has received a number of messages asking for comments on this information.
First, as we reported back on January 14, the Belarusian Hajun did not receive any reports on missile launches from the territory of Belarus in the morning of that day. Moreover, over the next two days after the strike on the Ukrainian capital, we also received no reports on missile launches from the territory of Belarus that morning, and there were no reports of missiles spotted by residents of Kyiv and Chernihiv oblasts bordering Belarus.
Second, if we assume that the S-400 missile in the morning of January 14 was really launched from the airfield in Ziabrauka, then thousands of local residents would have heard it, because only 10 km away there is densely populated Homel (about 500,000 people live there), and there are dozens of villages around the airfield. But again, we received no reports, not only on a launch, but even on sounds that would be similar to it.
Could a missile be launched from Belarus without anyone hearing it?
Yes and no. We know that there is an assumption among the Ukrainian military that the launch could have been made from the Belarusian part of the Chernobyl zone, where no people live, and therefore no one could have informed us about the missile launch from there.
Therefore, if we talk about whether it could have been launched without anyone hearing it, there is only one area in Belarus where it could have happened. This version is possible.
Where could a strike on Kyiv with S-400 have been launched from? / Belarusian Hajun
The launch could have also been made not far from Ziabrauka – in Bryansk oblast of Russia
While no one in Belarus recorded the sounds of missile launches, in the neighboring Bryansk oblast, Russia – quite the opposite.
In the afternoon of January 14, the publication Flagshtok reported that residents of the neighboring Bryansk oblast (Klintsy, Vyshkov, Pochep, Klimovo, Novozybkov) recorded sounds of explosions since about 7:00. Similar explosions were heard later – at 10:29 in Klintsy and Uniecha.
«There was a rumble and then an explosion, I was outside at that moment. Maybe missiles were launched from planes,» local residents wrote on social networks.
Thus, at the moment, it is much more likely that the S-400 missiles were launched in the morning of January 14 not from Belarus, but from Russia.
На русском языке:
Defense Express сообщил о запуске С-400 из Зябровки утром 14 января. «Беларускі Гаюн»: в эти дни запусков из РБ не было
На беларускай мове: Defense Express паведаміў пра запуск С-400 з Зяброўкі раніцай 14 студзеня. «Беларускі Гаюн»: у апошнія дні запускаў з РБ не было