На русском языке:
«Здоровья осталось на час»: как пресс-служба Лукашенко имитирует масштабность его визитов и сколько реально он времени там проводит?
In recent weeks, the press service of Aliaksandr Lukashenka has been constantly telling about his trips to “Dazhynki” (the annual “festival-fair of rural workers”) to Valozhyn, where animals were killed before his arrival, then to Karma, then to Masty, and so on. The next visit, by the way, will be to Polatsk on November 8.
Each such trip, the Pool of the First Telegram channel tries to show the scale and for this purpose publishes photos and videos of his standups throughout the day, tells how he “right now” communicates with locals and answers prepared questions.
If we analyze his visits solely by the way they are presented in the Telegram channel, we get the impression that Lukashenka spends 5-10 hours on trips and all this time he is actively getting closer to the people. But in reality everything is different.
Weekly "Dazhynki" – Aliaksandr's election campaign
Over the last month, he has already traveled 4 times to the regional «Dazhynki» in different regions of the country (he missed only the first one in Mahiliou region, and another one remains in Vitsiebsk region), each time on Saturday. The last «Dazhynki» with his participation took place in Masty on November 2.
That day, the press service reported his arrival at the harvest festival at 11:06, and for the next 5.5 hours published Lukashenka’s stories about 1997, «YOU SHOULD!»* and that wages in Masty would be like in Minsk.
* A flashmob launched by Lukashenka’s propaganda in his support for the upcoming «election.» This is a reference to his interview with a Russian propagandist who asked him if he would participate in the election. He responded by saying that if people said «You should,» he would participate. Then various organisations, from media outlets to industrial enterprises, published videos of their workers asking Lukashenka to run the election, saying «You should!»
Lukashenka at “Dazhynki” in Masty, November 2, 2024
The last post about the trip was published at 16:28 – it showed him coming down from the stage and talking to people. But actually at that moment he had been out of town for a long time, because he spent only 1.5 hours in Masty and left already at 12:30.
Lukashenka at “Dazhynki” in Masty, November 2, 2024
Another example of imitation of presence is «Dazhynki» in Valozhyn, which took place on October 19.
Natallia Eismant’s subordinates reported about Lukashenka’s arrival in the town at 10:43 and then the posts went on for 10 hours non-stop with minimal pauses for 2 hours.
To avoid being unsubstantiated, here is the duration of pauses between the posts: The first one at 10:43 and further in 1 minute (10:44), 31 min (11:15), 2 min (11:17), 1 min (11:18), 1 min (11:19), 5 min (11:24), 1 min (11:25), 41 min (12:06), 12 min (12:18), 13 min (12:31) and the next one already in 1.5 hours at 13:50.
Lukashenka at “Dazhynki” in Valozhyn, October 19, 2024
However, Lukashenka left Valozhyn at 11:45, but the press service continued to show him communicating with Kasiniets and published «an extremely unexpected start of the visit» when the visit had already been completed.
A 1 hour visit, but posts are published all day long
We calculated that in 2024, Lukashenka’s press service reported at least 24 of his trips across the country to major district centers, regional centers, villages and «agro-towns.»
Each such trip is covered by the Pool of the First for an average of 7-8 hours, but in reality Lukashenka spends from 55 minutes to 3.5 hours there.
We managed to establish that in at least 15 trips in 2024, Lukashenka spent significantly less time than his press service tried to imitate. It is important to note that they always write when he arrives, but almost never report when he leaves. Therefore, one can easily get the impression that he arrives for the whole day, but of course this is not the case.
How much time Lukashenka spent traveling around the country in 2024 / motolkohelp
In the table above, you can see how many hours, and sometimes even minutes, he actually spent in Hrodna, Kastsyukovichy or Ashmiany, and how long the promotion campaign lasted at the same time.
Let’s look in detail at another visit he made on July 24. That day, he went to Atolina, where, according to our data, he arrived at 10:05, and the post about his arrival was published 5 minutes later – at 10:10.
Chronology of posts and times of Lukashenka's visit to Atolina on July 24, 2024 / motolkohelp
Then they showed him inspecting a rapeseed field and visiting a grain storage. At 11:18, a post is published where Lukashenka gives Nazarau assignments. But in reality, he left Atolina 18 minutes before that – at 11:00.
Lukashenka in Atolina on July 24, 2024. Posted at 11:18 when he had already left
Yet we continue to be told that he has decided to inspect the fields from the sky and are shown various instructions from the latter on how to grow rapeseed. All this happens until 18:33, when the last video from the trip is published.
Pseudo-scale in foreign visits as well
Analyzing the way information is presented in his Telegram channel, one could notice that they almost never announce the dates of his trips. Nevertheless, we managed to find a few announcements:
- Moscow –May 8-9;
- Mongolia and Irkutsk – June 1-5;
- Kazakhstan – July 2-3;
- Valaam – July 25-27.
The first three trips are notable for the fact that his press service continued to show photos and videos of the visit at the moment when he had already left. For example, he left Irkutsk at 13:00 (UTC+08), but his Telegram channel continued to show him meeting with local residents and communicating with the governor of Irkutsk region.
Lukashenka in Irkutsk. Posted at 11:16, when he had already left there at 08:00
An interesting situation happened with his visit to Putin to Valaam. In addition to the fact that RIA Novosti published photos of Lukashenka from an extremely unfavorable angle, on the last day of the visit, on July 27, the Telegram channel of the Pool of the First did not publish a single photo or video of him, but only reported on his return to Belarus at 23:45.
Lukashenka at Valaam, July 26, 2024 / RIA Novosti
And in total, Lukashenka spent 26 days outside Belarus in 2024, most of which in Russia.
What does that all mean?
First, about the fact that his press office is clearly tasked with showing a visit somewhere for at least 6, if not 10 hours, and never, ever mentioning that he actually only spends an hour on site.
Second, everything points to the fact that Lukashenka cannot stay on the road much longer. After all, the embarrassing photos from Valaam, the request for a car ride during the May 9 parade in Moscow, and the bandaged hand are all rare but direct signs that he is already old and has obvious health problems. And we haven’t even begun to talk about the fact that he spends most of the year resting in his Aziorny residence, only occasionally traveling to selective meetings and then coming right back.
In addition, it is calculated that in 2024, Lukashenka spent a total of one month on vacation in his other out-of-town residences and in Aleksandriya village. He spent two vacations (in November and July) at the Viskuli residence in Belavezhskaya Pushcha, two vacations at the Prypiat residence in Liaskavichy, and 9 vacations in Aleksandriya (twice for 5 days in a row).
He needed all these visits to recover his health before/after a foreign visit. For example, on July 4, he arrived in Aleksandriya right from Astana and stayed in the village for 5 days. The same situation was before the “grand” tour Mongolia-Irkutsk, before which, again for 5 days, he prepared in Aleksandriya and went directly from there to Ulaanbaatar.
«The era of seventy-year-old rulers is coming to an end” – that’s what we would write if we were one famous media outlet, but they are the only one.
