На русском языке:
Onet: По одной из версий, российская ракета под Быдгощем прилетела со стороны РБ
На беларускай мове:
Onet: Па адной з версій, расійская ракета пад Быдгашчам прыляцела з боку РБ
At the end of last week, Polish media reported that wreckage of an unidentified military object was found in the woods near Zamość, 15 kilometers from Bydgoszcz.
Later there was information that it was the wreckage of the Russian missile Kh-55, and this morning Onet published an article with known details and versions about how this missile could have appeared on the territory of Poland.
The site of the missile fall in Poland / wyborcza.pl
According to the journalists, the first version was that the wreckage found belonged to a World War II shell, but this was quickly replaced by other theories. For example, last Friday, General Tomasz Piotrowski said that the object could be related to «the events of mid-December last year, when the Russians launched a massive bombing of Ukraine.»
Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stated the same, saying that on December 16, 2022, NATO F-35 planes and Polish planes were put on alert to track the trajectory of a missile that appeared on the territory of Poland. And the fact is that the missile was not found at the time.
Wreckage of the missile found near Bydgoszcz / wolski_jaros
According to the journalists, at the moment the most serious hypothesis taken into account by the investigators is that «on December 16, a Russian missile Kh-55 was launched from a Russian plane flying over the territory of Belarus.»
A high-ranking Polish official confirmed to journalists that the wreckage really was from the Russian Kh-55 missile: «Yes. Most likely it is a Russian missile.»
Wreckage of the missile found near Bydgoszcz / wolski_jaros
Although the version is not official and definitive, military expert Jaroslaw Wolski tried to reconstruct the flight of the missile and came to the version that «the launch was made from near Smolensk on Kyiv. One of the missiles deviated and headed towards Poland through the territory of Belarus.»
The route of the missile flight suggested by the military expert / wolski_jaros
What could the Belarusian Hajun say about it?
The first thing we do in cases like this is analyze all the information we have. First of all, we know that on that day, December 16, the A-50U AEW&C aircraft took off together with the MiG-31K of the Russian Aerospace Forces. In the first half of the day, there were training flights of fighters at Lida and Baranavichy airfields.
Aviation activity on the territory of Belarus on December 16, 2022 / hajun.by
However, there were no missile launches from the territory of Belarus all day long.
Now a few words about Jaroslaw Wolski’s version. The expert writes that the missile could have been launched near Smolensk. While all the other shells were heading towards Kyiv, this one «went into free flight» and, after a flight of ≈940 km, fell near Bydgoszcz.
We should understand that usually such missiles fly at an altitude of a couple of tens of meters, and it is difficult not to notice them. And judging by Wolski’s map, it could have flown over large cities: Mahiliou, Dziarzhynsk, Navahrudak, and near Minsk.
Wreckage of the missile found near Bydgoszcz / wyborcza.pl
In that case, if it had flown across the country, it would have been impossible not to notice it. But Wolski also notes that there could have been a navigation system failure, in this case it could have been flying at any altitude at all. And yes, it would still have been spotted in daytime, but if it was flying high, at night and in bad weather? In that case the probability that the shell would not have been seen is higher.
Location of the fall / Polish media
In addition, we note that the photos and videos published by the media show wreckage and a crash site, from which we can clearly say that the missile did not explode, the surrounding forest would have been «torn to pieces», and a large crater would have appeared. As an example, just look at the pictures of the fall of the FAB-500 missile in Belgorod, Russia, in April of this year. Comparing this is quite correct, since the warhead of the FAB has a mass of about 300 kg, and the Kh-55’s is more than four hundred.
A crater from the crash of the FAB-500 in Belgorod / colonelcassad.livejournal
This means that the missile was launched without a warhead at all, for example, it could have been launched to determine the air defense of Ukraine. Otherwise we would have seen a crater or at least dozens of burned and broken trees in the photo. At least, we can claim that equipment has already worked at the crash site, as indicated by the saw cuts on the trees.
Remains of the missile and a tree stump / wyborcza.pl
Nevertheless, we repeat that after verifying the data, we can say that we have no information about launches or flights of missiles over Belarus on that day. So we will follow the final conclusions of the investigation in Poland.
