На русском языке:
Мнение. Артем Шрайбман о телефонных разговорах Борреля и Меркель с официальным Минском
На беларускай мове: Меркаванне. Арцём Шрайбман пра тэлефонныя размовы Барэля і Меркель з афіцыйным Мінскам
Political observer Artyom Shraibman published a post in his Telegram channel in which he explained what Merkel’s telephone conversations with Lukashenka and Borrell’s with Makei could mean. Here are his words unchanged.
The calls of Borrell and Merkel increasingly look like an attempt to give Lukashenka the opportunity to de-escalate the conflict on his own without losing face completely.
The fact that Minsk literally and metaphorically crashed into the wall became clear immediately after November 8, when a group of Kurds went to the border.
Instead of softening, the EU’s position has tightened, sanctions are being prepared faster. The United States announced its upcoming new sanctions. And no one thought to let the migrants in or accept.
Lukashenka had to find a way to get off the track, so that it didn’t look like a complete capitulation. The exchange of signals of readiness to do this led to the fact that the EU decided to give it such an opportunity for humanitarian reasons.
Propaganda (and opponents of the government who are inclined to see the betrayal everywhere) proclaimed a diplomatic victory. Actually, for the sake of these delights, everything seems to have been conceived. Rejoice in your breakthrough, and let people go home quietly.
These measures are unlikely to cancel the fifth package, but Minsk can thus be saved from tougher sanctions.
It is too early to talk about Lukashenka’s recognition here. The fact that he controls the situation in Belarus and the fate of the people who found themselves on its territory, in general, is not disputed even by Tsikhanouskaya’s headquarters.
The West would look ridiculous if it ignored this reality. As in the case of Afghanistan, for the sake of taking people out of Kabul, it was necessary to conduct a dialogue with the Taliban.
The European Union, if it recognized Lukashenka as someone, it is rather as a person who is able to create problems in the region himself and then solve these problems himself.
I admit that in the minds of some people this is what «legitimacy» looks like – set fire to a barn in your yard, scare neighbors with a fire and put out the barn when you get a call.