На русском языке:
Мнение. Дмитрий Навоша о том, что будет куда хуже, прежде чем начнет становиться лучше
На беларускай мове:
Меркаванне. Дзмітрый Навоша пра тое, што будзе куды горш, перш чым пачне станавіцца лепш
Dzmitry Navosha, the CEO and co-founder of Tribuna, published a post in his telegram channel, in which he talks about trends on the part of the regime; that we are already in a disaster and that the mechanism of its self-destruction is inherent in the tools used by the dictatorship to suppress threats. Here is the opinion unchanged.
Belarusians do not use images such as «break the bottom», as they know that there is no bottom. This regularly growing hell is determined by the terror of 2020, which trampled a months-long protest. All these trends are easy to extend. What’s next? I will tell you.
1
Yes, they will begin to take away real estate and other property. This is illegal, but it was announced by Lukashenka himself + already start with Latushka’s daughter and the Olympic medalist Herasimenia. Yes, this opens Pandora’s box in relation to the lukashists themselves [Lukashenka’s supporters – ed.] – but Lukashenka personally does not care about their future problems (after him). The dictator’s favorite combo «revenge» + «get money» makes this venture especially attractive (as, for example, in the weaponization of migrants; the opportunity to earn money was a significant motive there, and not just the desire to bend Europe).
2
Yes, they will begin to revoke the citizenship of «enemies of the state.» This is directly prohibited by the constitution, but do not even doubt that they will begin. (But don’t be too scared – there is a «Geneva passport» for such cases; plus at least Lithuania and Poland will come up with a way to help people). This form of taking revenge may a little after the first due to the fact that it is purely about revenge, without earnings.
3
Let’s continue about combos. The trend of «we will give him a 15 thousand dollar fine from Minsktrans for going out on the street» will receive its large (very large) development. All these «let them compensate for the damage» and «let them return, they stole everything» sound from the mouth of Lukashenka for a certain reason. Law enforcement agencies are still self-supporting, state racket against entrepreneurs has been legalized long ago. Now the racket will become part of the state plan, they will introduce competition between various departments — who will get more from their victims. The industry will have to work harder than agriculture; the issue of money is becoming more acute. Zmagar [dissident – ed.], or not zmagar, if you have something, and you are not one of us, then we will find what kind of «damage» you have to «compensate». Feeling these risks, even those merchants, who was keeping low profile due to natural Belarusian caution in 2020, are already trying not to enter the country.
4
IT- specialists have already turned from the pride of the country into something like Jews under the early NSDAP. Many have already understood everything, and they’re leaving now. The rest still have to realize that poverty for the late Lukashism is not a bug, it is a feature. The poor have lower ambitions, stronger dependence and fear. The paradigm shift will affect the entire private sector, not just IT. No wonder that in confessional police videos they force victims to name their (high) salaries. Independent people = obviously unreliable.
By the way, therefore, no special well-being threatens the cogs of Lukashism, except for those close to the family. Most of the cogs will continue to fight Europe’s corrupting influence for wages below the european average unemployment benefit. Their benefit is non-violence against them (those Lukashists, who give slack and show humanity, will be dealt with demonstratively). Plus the «moral satisfaction» from point 5.
5
How long will active repression last? As long as Lukashism lasts. The cessation of the visible protest did not stop the repression. Every week the system will continue to ‘chew’ several people: with deliberate chuckling, loudly, with confessional videos, etc. Features of the concentration camp: torpor and horror should not subside, otherwise it is difficult for the minority to keep the majority in obedience.
Violence is also emboldened by law enforcers. The option «beat everyone and put in jail, and everything will be as before» did not work, the concept was changed to «another victim = another victory». Look how much we trampled and broke, yes we are strong, we are winners all around. Work, brothers, other victories are still not expected.
In Lukashenka’s Gestapo, there are enough of them, for some the opportunity to lawlessness is valuable in itself. All this is the «right to dishonor» according to Dostoevsky. Plus a practical indulgence, a conclusion from the law. Am OMON officer in Asipovichy killed a military commissar (an active Lukashist, irony); Rechitsa cops beat to death a simple guy from the district on New Year’s Eve. So what? And nothing, oprichniks can do anything they want.
6
Military conflict. It definitely will be. The whole logic of the militarization of Lukashism leads there, all the dictatorial manuals. It is not certain that this will be an operation against Ukraine – everything is decided by Putin on the Ukrainian front. Maybe the incident with Poland or Lithuania – it is safer for the Kremlin to bully NATO with the hands of its proxy than directly. The options of sending Lukashenka’s battalions to some next Central African adventure of the Kremlin, together with Prigozhin’s PMC, are even more likely to happen. You, Lukashenka, want it or not (and you want; you were so proud about Kazakhstan), but now you have nothing to repay billions of debt every year, and there is nothing to do. Deferrals and discounts will be an exchange for such services.
Plus, this dictatorial mechanism is «smeared in blood». Lukashenka pulled this off with a great talent in 2020 to his security forces. So the Kremlin will consolidate the loyalty of the Lukashist law enforcers with blood, so that there are no options for prevarication.
7
Firmware upgrade of the population. This is also not a prediction, but an extension of the vector, quite an Orwellian process has been launched. Through long (negative) selection, the dictator bred prototypes of a special Lucashist race – coward, weak-willed officials and officers, with amputated empathy and humanity. Ready to endure any humiliation from above – and humiliating those below. Uncritically listening to any of Lukashenka’s nonsense, even if it contradicts yesterday’s.
One vertical for the stability of Lukashism was not enough, and since the people turned out to be unreliable, then everyone is now subject to upgrade. It’s not even about conformity and suppression of the will, for example: since Soviet times, this has never stopped. And about a completely anthropological attempt to erase basic, Christian attitudes, morality, the ability to compassion. If you helped those in need with the payment of fines — you were a criminal. You sympathized with the murdered by the KGB Zeltser – to prison. And so on. It’s going to get worse.
Upgrade tools are schools, universities, «labor collectives», the church. I hope, our doublethink taken out of the scoop, the ability to feign obedience without turning into a zombie completely will help to resist. But new zombies will also appear — lower Lukashist cops or judges from 20 to 35. This post is about «what will happen», not about «what to do», but here the direction will be indicated: do not let them turn at least your friends and relatives into zombies. First of all, children.
8
«Wessi» and «Ossi», some alienation of West and East Germans is a social phenomenon of a united Germany decades later. In Belarus, if Lukashism drags on for many years, it will be the same. There will be a problem of tension between the dynamic, adaptive, European-experienced returnees – and the rest of slavelike, traumatized by Lukashism, slipping to a free life.
9
An infrastructure disaster. Again, in conditions of poverty and the replacement of competence with loyalty is already going on: from the collapse of the bridge in the center of Minsk to the shutdown of electricity supply to entire regions. Assess by yourself where to extend this trend with an increasing scale, and whether the collapse (God forbid) can last until the nuclear power plant.
Less is said about the destruction of «social infrastructure,» but it is even more important. It’s not just hundreds of NGOs, including those that helped people with disabilities or troubled children, or charitable initiatives from «Names» to «byCovid». These are all lower associations that are not controlled by the state: sports, educational and cultural initiatives, volunteering. The very ability of people to unite on any occasion is dangerous for Lukashism. There will simply be no solution to a number of social problems for some time, the zone of social disaster will grow.
10
Economy is a huge separate unit; the principle is already clear — a simple extension of the trend gives an aggravation of poverty and hidden unemployment such as a three-day working week, etc. And try now to protest even without any political motive. Look at least at the Olympic athlete Tsimanouskaya, even at those pensioners, who tried to defend oak trees against cutting in their future cemetery in the Polessie village recently. In absence of a carrot, everyone is entitled to a double dose of the stick.
P.S.
In general: it will be much worse before it starts to get better. But that’s not pessimism. Especially not defeatism. It is rather an answer to the question of why some did not give up or do not give up (because the price of Lukashism is great), even when the degree of danger of any action has become apparent. I try not to exaggerate, just to extend the vector – well, and protect from future disappointments. We are already inside the disaster. I continue to believe that the dictatorship will rot and collapse, even if suddenly people do not have the strength to resist it. The tools used by the dictatorship to suppress threats also contain the very mechanism of its self-destruction.
