На русском языке:
Мнение. Серж Харитонов о новом деле против Тихановской и Латушко и «МИДе Макея»
На беларускай мове:
Меркаванне. Серж Харытонаў пра новую справу супраць Ціханоўскай і Латушкі і «МЗС Макея»
Serge Kharytonau, iSANS media expert, in his Telegram channel explains why the new criminal case against Tsikhanouskaya and Latushka is an important event and what prospects the «Makei’s MFA» has. Here are his words unchanged.
The filing by the junta of a criminal case on the «appropriation of the power of an official» against Tsikhanouskaya and Latushka is a de facto recognition of the political subjectivity of both politicians.
This event may be underestimated by a wide audience, so I feel it necessary to explain what has really happened today.
Lukashists [Lukashenka’s supporters–ed.] today actually recognized that for 14 months the democratic forces (it’s not only about Tsikhanouskaya and Latushka – although, first of all, about them) formed the foundations of the future diplomatic service, public administration and security bodies for the transition period and the peaceful transit of power.
Moreover, the Lukashists recognized that the subjectivity of alternative institutions (formal and informal), which are widely supported by Belarusians within the country and in the diaspora, is already widely recognized by the international community at the level of foreign states and international organizations.
At the same time, representatives of the regime actually confirmed that the disintegration of the system of external political contacts under the control of former Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Makei is already an established fact.
The offices of the so-called «Makei’s MFA» are not able to conduct political and economic communication with the governments of the countries where they are located — unless we are talking about Syria, Nicaragua and similar territories where the current regimes themselves lack legitimacy.
This phenomenon will lead to further erosion of the so-called «Makei’s MFA» in its current form — approximately according to the same scenario as the diplomatic service of the USSR crumbled at the stage of the «parade of sovereignties» of the former Soviet republics.
I would venture to guess that the next stage of the Belarusian political crisis in the next 18 months will be a mass refusal to recognize the offices of «Makei’s MFA» as legitimate and legal representatives of the Republic of Belarus as a state — and the emergence of an alternative system of diplomatic service and diplomatic missions of the Republic of Belarus, which will be loyal to Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and will be recognized by foreign states and organizations.
If this forecast still seems unrealistic to you, I recommend you to see how the formation of an alternative customs and border service in Lithuania began in the early 1990s. Symbolic trailers of unarmed volunteers, which were regularly attacked by Soviet policemen, in a few years turned into a full-fledged customs service of an independent state.
Belarus is following the same path that the Baltic states went through in the early 1990s. This means that without a base of social support, the repressive system of the junta (like the state apparatus of the USSR) will be forced to start more and more criminal cases – until, finally, it becomes obvious that criminal cases need to be brought against most of the country.
All these processes will eventually lead to an acceleration of the disintegration of state institutions under the control of the Lukashenka regime and accelerate the emergence of alternative formal institutions of public administration on the territory of Belarus itself in the same form as it happened in the early 1990s in the Baltic States.
These processes are already irreversible. The only variable is the speed of development, which will now depend on political will in the US, the UK, the EU, Canada, as well as in international organizations where these countries and their allies are crucial.
