Photo: Ministry of Defense of Belarus
– On October 10-11, a massive missile strike was launched on the territory of Ukraine. According to the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, on October 10, Iranian Shahed-136 (Geran-2) loitering munition drones were used during the strikes from the territory of Belarus. Our monitoring team still has no confirmation of the presence of Iranian kamikaze drones on the territory of Belarus. Information about missile strikes from the territory of Belarus on October 11 was not confirmed.
– On October 10, during a meeting with Lukashenka’s security forces, the deployment of a “regional group of troops” was announced. This is a military structure, the creation of which is envisaged by the Treaty on the creation of the Union State of 1999. It includes the Belarusian Armed Forces (fully) and some units of the Russian Armed Forces. Lukashenka named the total number of troops in the “regional group” to be 70,000.
And already on October 15, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus began to report on the arrival of the first echelons with servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces, which are part of the “regional group of troops.” Judging by the published photos, we can state that the mobilized citizens of Russia arrive in Belarus without heavy armored vehicles. Only vehicles and fuel trucks were seen on the flatcars. Russian servicemen are stationed at training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces in northern and central regions of Belarus. This allows us to state that the main purpose of their arrival in Belarus is military training at Belarusian training grounds, as we reported earlier (see Scenario 2). It is reported that in total at least 9 thousand servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces are to arrive in Belarus.
In turn, on October 16, three MiG-31 fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces (RF-92462, RF-92339, RF-92333) arrived at Machulishchy airfield near Minsk. These fighters are capable of launching Kinzhal hypersonic missiles. The Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported that these aircraft are “the aviation component of the regional group of troops.”
Photo: Ministry of Defense of Russia
– Active withdrawal of military equipment and ammunition from the territory of Belarus to Russia has started. In particular, the movement of echelons with T-72A tanks [1,2,3] and vehicles [1,2]was observed. The type of the equipment transferred indicates that it had been removed from storage from the 969th tank reserve base (Urechcha, Luban district, Minsk region) and the 288th vehicle reserve base (Stariya Darohi, Minsk region). Ammunition transfer from the 43rd (Dobrush district, Homel region) and 46th (Bronnaya Hara village, Biaroza district, Brest region) missile and ammunition arsenals was also reported [1,2].
According to our data, the following may have been transferred to Russia in the past week:
- T-72A tanks – at least 65-70 units;
- trucks (Ural) – at least 28;
- 20 cars with ammunition.
– The following activity of the Russian Aerospace Forces was recorded in Belarus:
- October 12. Two Su-34 fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces flew from Baranavichy airfield to Russia. A passenger aircraft An-148 of the Russian Aerospace Forces (registration number RA-61731) landed at Machulishchy airfield.
- October 14. A passenger aircraft An-148 of the Russian Aerospace Forces (registration number RA-61728) landed at Machulishchy airfield; later it flew away.
- October 15. A passenger aircraft An-148 of the Russian Aerospace Forces (registration number RA-61731) arrived at Machulishchy airfield from Chkalovsky airfield; later it flew back. IL-76 of the Russian Aerospace Forces (registration number RF-76640) landed at Homel airport; later it flew away.
- October 16. IL-76 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces with registration numbers RF-86902 (later it flew to Seshcha airfield), RF-76722 (later it flew to Seshcha airfield), RF-76724 (later it flew to Seshcha airfield) landed at Machulishchy airfield. All the aircraft flew away after the unloading.
Thus, in total, 3 passenger An-148 and 4 military-transport IL-76 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived in Belarus in a week.
Photo: Ministry of Defense of Belarus
– On October 11 (the day after Lukashenka’s meeting with the security forces), a sudden inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces was announced. Monitoring of Telegram channels of military units of the Belarusian Armed Forces showed that only units of the 339th Mechanized Battalion of the 120th Separate Mechanized Brigade (Minsk) went to the training ground as part of the inspection to perform combat-training tasks. The inspection of the unit was held from October 11 to October 13 [1, 2, 3]. It is also known that composite companies of the 6th Separate Mechanized Brigade and 38th Separate Air Assault Brigade were involved in the inspection from October 11 to October 12. The total number of those involved in the inspection didn’t exceed 500 people and 50 units of military and special equipment.
– Rotation of units of the Belarusian Armed Forces, which carried out tasks to strengthen the protection of the state border, was conducted. In particular, units of the 6th Separate Mechanized Brigade (Hrodna) returned to their permanent deployment points. The information was also confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of Belarus.
- The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus conducted tactical-special exercises to practice a set of measures: search and destruction of possible sabotage-reconnaissance groups and illegal armed formations, ensuring the safety of citizens. The exercises were held in Yelsk (Homel region).
- The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Belarus Vladimir Makei in an interview to the Russian publication “Izvestiya” said that Belarus introduced a counter-terrorist operation (CTO) mode due to the threat from Ukraine. Earlier (October 10), Lukashenka instructed the KGB to carry out measures of “anti-terrorist nature.” The KGB stated that the CTO mode had not been introduced on the territory of Belarus.
- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia stated that some Belarusian Su-25 aircraft were re-equipped to be technically capable of carrying nuclear weapons.
- The Belarusian military returned from the exercises that were held in Kazakhstan.
На русском языке:
Обзор основных военно-политических событий в Беларуси за 10-16 октября