На русском языке:
Мнение. «Политонелогия» о контроле и миграционном кризисе
На беларускай мове:
Меркаванне. «Палітанелогія» пра кантроль і міграцыйны крызіс
«Politonelogiya», Telegram channel about the current review of political events and political philosophy, published a post about control, the migration crisis and the role of Russia. Here is the opinion unchanged.
«Pool of the first» wrote in vain that Lukashenka called Putin. The agenda in Eismont’s post is fake. A couple of days after the Supreme State Council, and they already «set their clock». This devalues Lukashenka’s independence. After all, no one dares to punish a sovereign ruler.
Russia, of course, is closely watching the development of the migration crisis, and I am curious whether they understand how much the escalation is really provoked.
He is, of course, a sinister ogre and the refugee crisis as a whole is entirely his «merit». However, we do not have objective data that would prove that yesterday’s column was organized directly from the palace. I fully admit that they just don’t control the processes anymore.
Just as Hitler didn’t know how to take into account the local nature, so the «god of winter crops» – Lukashenka, is hardly able to play at this level of detail. Impulsiveness of decisions and lack of a sense of strategy can play a cruel joke: the situation is left to chance. In the act, he is interested in the manifesto — the flow of news, but not the trend, not the event in general. Like, pick on them with migrants, and come what may.
And for the regime, it is even worse if the breakthrough is a natural accident.
Not seeing people for the last 27 years, Lukashenka is not able to manage social processes. Migrants in Minsk, however, represent a microsociety, and even traditionally incapable of incorporation into larger systems.
Danger, a banal danger to the life and health of these people, may well turn against the organizers of a prolonged provocation.
Anyway, I think that at the moment control has been lost, and the propaganda machine named after Lukashenka is idly working out, reacting to the agenda that they created themselves– devouring themselves.
I agree with the reflection, the attention of local security forces has to switch to Middle Eastern guests, who, I repeat, hardly fit into the way of our metropolitan life. Remember, some people here are preparing a new plebiscite (as if they had ever seen the election differently). So frankly hitting your own electorate – stability – is a talent.
Anyway, it is worth trying to abstract as much as possible from official statements from the palace. Peskov, Lavrov and other «ov» should be listened to, if possible, filtering the evaluative and internal meanings on which Putin’s regime rests («Bloody West!», etc.). In other words, of all that official Moscow has said, only one thing can be singled out: we have nothing to do with it and this not our problem.
They make excuses and try to keep their distance. It’s late. The crisis had to be stopped at its root – when control was still possible. Now there are two behavioral equidistance lines: cautious support for Lukashenka at the declaration level, and feverish attempts to find a way out.
Heating up the confrontation with Western countries won’t help Putin now. Of course, he is always ready to «tease» the «partners», but on his own terms and without dubious intermediaries. Moreover, our border is almost common and the state is a union. So the Kremlin can be attributed to indirect accusations, at least of non-interference – it is enough just to have imagination.
By the way, the crisis with migrants to a certain extent solves the problem of the representativeness of the Union State, as it forces official Moscow to withdraw. Who will actively consume such a poisonous resource as Lukashenka becomes?
It is very important that it is now increasingly difficult for all actors to remain neutral. Europe is not Africa. Here, the coherence of processes and transparency are all in plain sight: from Germany to Turkey.
And Putin got another chance to boost his rating outside of Russia. However, for this purpose it will be necessary to slightly «snitch» on Lukashenka. The situation is unequivocal.
The most interesting thing is that this whole bacchanalia increases the credibility of Tsikhanouskaya’s Team, who creates much less problems and is ready to talk. Yesterday, Duda called Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. She’s a relevant figure. Lukashenka is radical, not systemic and does not see tomorrow. The Team is consistent and offers a constructive agenda. It’s time to unite, cutting off unnecessary ambitions, around the Team. It’s time to strike at the regime. The best moment will probably be a long time later.
