На русском языке:
Мнение. «Белорусский порядок» об информационном хаосе в телеграм-среде
На беларускай мове:
Меркаванне. «Беларускі парадак» пра інфармацыйны хаос у тэлеграм-асяроддзі
The Telegram channel «Belarusian Order» published a post in which it analyzes what has happened in the Telegram environment recently. We quote their words unchanged.
In recent weeks, information chaos has been happening in the Telegram environment. Against the background of the pogrom of the entire ecosystem, inaccurate information, miscommunication and the search for hidden meanings gave rise to such cadavers that they lived their lives. There are several of them, so let’s take them point by point:
the First
With great interest I read conspiracy theories, which unfolded around an ordinary media event — an interview with Tihanovskaya to the Echo. Someone set up the canvases of analytics on the topic «The Kremlin leaks the information on Lukashenka», someone saw in this interview a lot of things that were not there. In fact, nothing serious was hidden behind this conversation – it was a situational kick of Lukashenka, and nothing more.
The Kremlin is not ready to work with the Belarusian democratic forces, Lukashenka in the role of Kadyrov suits them quite well.
the Second
Charter’s strike. I deliberately do not say «Dyleuski’s strike», because this ancient evil was behind the information adventure. The media storm of the 2000s and the demons of the early 2010s could not feel the flow after 2020, until they found a suitable speaker among new faces. Unfortunately, Siarhei became expendable for them. He was thrown on the grenade with unsubstantiated statements, but they kept their heads down.
You can see the result – the «strike» has become a media event, rather than a real one. I know cases where people did take a vacation or sick leave for this period, but the gap between posts in some channels and reality is too large. I hope that the initiators, that the audience, will draw their own conclusions.
the Third
Schrodinger’s talks, or «high-level conference», aka «dialogue», aka «our information is leaked». As far as I understand, the idea of the organizers is as follows: a conference with the participation of Western politicians, where you can raise the Belarusian issue, express concern (perhaps even deep), etc. That is, an event to hold and promote the agenda. There is no question of any hostage bargaining there.
The invitation of the officials and the Russians is purely formal, without expectations that they will send someone serious. So that there was no crying later, «that they did not even invite us». Europeans and democratic forces need to discuss the crisis somewhere, to develop common approaches to its solution. Conditionally, how to close vulnerabilities in the sanctions mechanism, or what else can be done from what was promised, but was not implemented. Such a format in principle excludes negotiations.
Where did the presentation of the conference as a negotiation come from, this question I would address to Nick and Mike, who first proposed such a definition. And if someone is worried that the regime will try to negotiate with the Europeans behind the backs of the Belarusians, so the conference is not needed for this. Let me reveal The secret of Polishinel: since the beginning of the crisis, the BSSR has been sending messengers to various institutions throughout the EU. In the vast majority of cases, they are met by closed doors. And serious lobbyists don’t see such a toxic client.
The exceptions are conferences on the topic of security, where the concept of realpolitik prevails, and where you can wedge yourself with your charm about «Lukashenka is the guarantor of sovereignty and the donor of regional stability.» One of these is the Stockholm Security Conference from SIRPI, which will be attended by Belarusian experts with the support of the local Ambassador of the BSSR.
But something tells me that instead of sympathetic nodding, as it used to be, there will be cold alienation. Because it is impossible to sell long-rotten theses against the background of the surrender of part of sovereignty, the crisis with migrants at the border and partial recognition of the Crimea.
And seriously, all this takes a lot of attention, but does not determine the outcome of the crisis. There is the same ‘foam’ as the referendum with the «redistribution of the branches of power» between Lukashenko and Lukashenka.
The determining factor is only one thing: the readiness of the protest movement to resist. I understand that against the background of what is happening, it is not even easy to believe in the continuation of the struggle, it is almost impossible.
Some have already internally capitulated and offer to wait for another 5 years, some just waste their breath with hollow exhortations. Reality is more complex and contradictory, there are both obstacles and opportunities.
We still have unused bargaining chips that can be put into action. Until it’s too late.
