На русском языке:
Мнение. «Мифология Беларуси» о денежном ларчике в Крыму
На беларускай мове:
Меркаванне. «Міфалогія Беларусі» пра грашовы куфэрак у Крыму
The «Mythology of Belarus» Telegram channel published a post about Lukashenka’s words on the significance and possible consequences of Lukashenka’s statement on the recognition of the Crimea as Russian. We quote author’s words unchanged.
So, Lukashenka in an interview with Kiselyov has said that he recognizes the Crimea both de jure and de facto Russian, and is going to visit the peninsula.
Well, it has to come to this. As we wrote a couple of weeks ago, «[The Kremlin] takes this opportunity to squeeze and, apparently, has linked a serious financial support with the unequivocal recognition of Crimea as Russian. A couple of billion will be found, the Kremlin hints, but the casket with them is in the Crimea – you are welcome!»
Actually, the serious escalation of the situation with migrants at the border with Poland two weeks ago was indirectly related to this pressure – as an attempt to jump off and knock out monetary resources with a «war-making mission».
Calling for a dialogue with the opposition last week, Putin also referred to the unresolved problems in Belarus as Lukashenka’s unrealized additional concessions, primarily regarding the unequivocal recognition of the Crimea as Russian – see «Translation of Putin’s statement».
In general, the Kremlin’s original idea was apparently that Lukashenka would arrive in Crimea on November 4, and it was there that on the Russian Day of National Unity, in company with Putin, he would sign integration agreements.
However, a week before that, Lukashenka visited the «red zone» in the Lida Infectious Diseases Hospital, where he defiantly could not put on a medical mask for a very long time. For this reason, they let him off the hook then of the trip to the Crimea.
Lukashenka’s visit to the Crimea is both an important psychological milestone in relations with Minsk and a practical political action for the Kremlin.
According to Moscow’s plan, the signing of integration agreements (November 4) and their subsequent implementation will deprive Belarus of sovereignty in internal affairs, and the final recognition of the Crimea as Russian in external ones.
These are two game changers, according to which the Kremlin is pressing for the final transformation of Belarus into the BSSR-2. This is the price that Moscow demands for providing Lukashenka with further financial and political support, including in the form of recognition of the new Constitution. It is designed to ensure his further rule and dynastic transition of power in the medium term.
In total, upon Lukashenka’s arrival in Sevastopol, the monetary issue will be resolved as soon as necessary through the Eurasian Fund for Stabilization and Development or through permission to use the balance of the loan for the construction of a nuclear power plant.
Or (which is less likely, but possible) if Lukashenka still tries to raise the stakes even higher and impose his game, in the coming weeks there will be more serious provocations at the border of Belarus and the EU.
